July 6, 2022

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The Sports Fanatics

Every 2022 NA VCT Stage 2 playoff scenario

It’s come down to the fifth and final week of the 2022 North American VALORANT Champion Tour Stage Two main event. There have already been some stunning results after four weeks of play, including both Sentinels and Cloud9 getting eliminated from playoff contention before the final week.

But even with former titans down and out, there’s still plenty to look forward to in the final matches. With the way seeding works in this stage, finishing as high as possible before the playoffs is important. The top seed from each of the two groups advances directly to the second round of the winners bracket, meaning they just need two straight wins to advance to Masters Copenhagen. The fourth seed, however, must start the playoffs in the lower bracket.

Here’s how the final week of action could affect the NA VCT Stage Two playoffs.

Group A

The Guard vs. NRG fight for survival and fourth place

Photo via Riot Games

The winner of The Guard vs. NRG will qualify for the playoffs as the fourth seed. Both teams are tied at 1-3 and will meet face-to-face on Saturday, June 11 at 3pm CT. With the three teams above them sitting at 3-1, there’s no chance for either team to qualify for higher than fourth.

For NRG, it’s do or die. They’re at risk of not even making the Last Chance Qualifier if they fall short of the playoffs in Stage Two.

XSET, Ghost, and 100 Thieves fight for first place

Photo via Riot Games

These three teams are tied up at 3-1 and each have a chance to finish in first place. Here’s how each scenario could play out.

  • XSET defeat TSM, Ghost defeat 100T: XSET finish first, Ghost finish second, and 100T finish third.
  • TSM defeat XSET, Ghost defeat 100T: Ghost finish first, 100T finish second, and XSET finish third.
  • 100T defeat Ghost: 100T finish first, XSET finish second, and Ghost finish third. The result of TSM vs. XSET would not matter toward seeding.

100 Thieves are the only team in full control of their own destiny. They only have to win against Ghost since they already own a tiebreaker over XSET. Ghost have the toughest task since they have to beat 100T and rely on an already eliminated TSM to defeat XSET because XSET own the tiebreaker over Ghost.

Group B

Evil Geniuses vs. FaZe, Luminosity vs. OpTic

Photo via Riot Games

LG, OpTic, and EG all hold 3-1 records. All four teams, including FaZe, are locked into the playoffs with C9 and Sentinels eliminated, but where they are seeded will be decided by the final group stage matches.

Here’s each scenario.

  • EG defeat FaZe, OpTic defeat LG: EG finish first, OpTic finish second, LG finish third, and FaZe finish fourth.
  • EG defeat FaZe, LG defeat OpTic: EG finish first, LG finish second, OpTic finish third, and FaZe finish fourth.
  • FaZe defeat EG, OpTic defeat LG: OpTic finish first, second through fourth are decided by map differential.
  • FaZe defeat EG, LG defeat OpTic: LG finish first, second through fourth are decided by map differential.

EG are in control of their own destiny. They hold tiebreakers over both OpTic and LG, and just need a win over FaZe to secure the top seed. In that scenario, the OpTic vs. LG match would decide who gets second and who gets third, while FaZe would be locked into fourth.

But if FaZe win, the group suddenly gets a lot more interesting. A FaZe win would mean that the winner of LG vs. OpTic decides who gets the first seed of the group. It would also create a weird three-way tiebreaker. FaZe would own a win over EG, EG would own a win over the LG/OpTic loser, and the LG/OpTic loser would own a win over FaZe. The final standings for those three would then be decided by map differential.

Here’s the final map record and standings for each of the four teams, depending on the scores in the event of a FaZe win over EG.

Match results EG OpTic LG FaZe
FaZe 2-0, LG 2-0 6-5 / Fourth 7-5 / Third 8-3 / First 6-4 / Second
FaZe 2-0, LG 2-1 6-5 / Fourth 8-5 / Second 8-4 / First 6-4 / Third
FaZe 2-0, OG 2-0 6-5 / Third or fourth* 9-3 / First 6-5 / Third or fourth* 6-4 / Second
FaZe 2-0, OG 2-1 6-5 / Fourth 9-4 / First 7-5 / Third 6-4 / Second
FaZe 2-1, LG 2-0 7-5 / Second or third* 7-5 / Second or third* 8-3 / First 6-5 / Fourth
FaZe 2-1, LG 2-1 7-5 / Second 8-5 / Third 8-4 / First 6-5 / Fourth
FaZe 2-1, OG 2-0 7-5 / Second 9-3 / First 6-5 / Third or fourth* 6-5 / Third or fourth*
FaZe 2-1, OG 2-1 7-5 / Second or third* 9-4 / First 7-5 / Second or third* 6-5 / Fourth

FaZe can avoid fourth place altogether if they defeat EG by a 2-0 margin. But a 2-1 victory for FaZe means they would in all likelihood still finish fourth. OpTic are the only team of the four to be guaranteed not to finish fourth.

In a situation where a team’s map record is tied, marked by an asterisk above, then the tiebreaker would be decided by round differential.